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Statistics and Probability

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Normal Distribution

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A bell-shaped probability distribution that is symmetrical about the mean. Example: Heights of people are often normally distributed.

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Sample Space

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The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Example: For a six-sided die, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

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Standard Deviation

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A measure of how spread out numbers are from the mean. Example: In a set {2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9}, the standard deviation is approximately 2.

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Regression analysis

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A statistical method for estimating the relationships among variables. Example: Predicting height based on age and gender using past data.

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Chi-Square Test

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A statistical test used to determine whether there is a significant association between categorical variables. Example: Determining if there is a relationship between gender and voting preference.

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Null Hypothesis

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A hypothesis that there is no effect or no difference, and it is the hypothesis that researchers typically try to disprove. Example: The null hypothesis may be that a new drug has no effect on a disease.

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Confidence Interval

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A range of values that is likely to contain a population parameter with a certain level of confidence. Example: A 95% confidence interval for the mean might be (45, 55).

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Dependent Events

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Two events where the occurrence of one event does affect the likelihood of the other. Example: Drawing two cards from a deck without replacement.

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Binomial Distribution

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The probability distribution of the number of successes in a fixed number of independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with a given probability. Example: The distribution of flipping a coin 10 times and counting the number of heads.

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Alternative Hypothesis

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The hypothesis that there is an effect or a difference. Example: Believing that a new drug does have an effect on a disease.

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Independent Events

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Two events that have no influence on the likelihood of each other occurring. Example: Flipping a coin and rolling a die are independent events.

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Median

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The middle value in a list of numbers. Example: For the set {1, 3, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9}, the median is 6.

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P-value

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The probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the results actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. Example: A p-value of 0.05 or less is often considered statistically significant.

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Statistical Significance

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The likelihood that a result or relationship is caused by something other than mere random chance. Example: A study finding that a drug is effective with a p-value of 0.03 may be considered statistically significant.

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Hypothesis Testing

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A method of making statistical decisions using experimental data. Hypothesis testing is used to determine whether there is enough evidence in a sample of data to infer that a certain condition holds for the entire population. Example: Determining whether a new drug is effective, based on sample trial data.

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Central Limit Theorem

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The theory that the sum of a large number of independent and identically distributed random variables tends towards a normal distribution, regardless of the original distribution of the variables. Example: Average of die rolls.

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Mode

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The value that appears most often in a set of data. Example: In the set {1, 2, 4, 4, 7}, the mode is 4.

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Type I Error

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The error of rejecting a true null hypothesis (false positive). Example: Convicting an innocent person.

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Expected Value

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The anticipated value for an investment in the future. In probability, it is calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. Example: The expected value of rolling a six-sided die is 3.53.5.

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Law of Large Numbers

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A principle that states as a sample size grows, its mean gets closer to the average of the whole population. Example: Flipping a coin many times will result in an average close to 0.5 heads.

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Mean

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The arithmetic average of a set of values, calculated by adding them all up and dividing by the number of values. Example: For the set {2, 3, 4}, the mean is (2+3+4)/3 = 3.

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Poisson Distribution

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A probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space. Example: The number of emails one receives in an hour.

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Permutation

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An arrangement of objects in a specific order. The formula for the number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is P(n,r)=n!(nr)!P(n, r) = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!}. Example: The number of ways to arrange 3 books on a shelf from a set of 5 is P(5,3)=5!(53)!=60P(5, 3) = \frac{5!}{(5-3)!} = 60.

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Bayes' Theorem

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A formula that describes how to update the probabilities of hypotheses when given evidence. In its simplest form, it can be written as P(AB)=P(BA)P(A)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}. Example: Updating the probability of having a disease given a positive test result.

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Probability

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A measure of the likelihood that an event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. Example: The probability of flipping a head on a fair coin is 0.5.

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Z-Score

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The number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. Example: A z-score of 2 means the data point is 2 standard deviations above the mean.

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Type II Error

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The error of not rejecting a false null hypothesis (false negative). Example: Failing to detect a disease in a person who actually has the disease.

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Combination

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A selection of objects without regard to the order. The formula for the number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is C(n,r)=n!r!(nr)!C(n, r) = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!}. Example: The number of ways to choose 3 books from a set of 5 is C(5,3)=5!3!(53)!=10C(5, 3) = \frac{5!}{3!(5-3)!} = 10.

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Sampling Distribution

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The probability distribution of a given statistic based on a random sample. Example: The distribution of sample means for samples of a given size drawn from a population.

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Random Variable

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A variable that takes on different numerical values, each with a certain probability. Example: The sum on two dice when rolled.

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Mutually Exclusive Events

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Events that cannot occur at the same time. Example: Rolling a 3 and a 5 on a single die at the same time.

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Variance

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The average of the squared differences from the mean. Example: For the set {2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9}, the variance is approximately 4.

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Correlation Coefficient

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A measure that indicates the extent to which two variables are related. Example: A correlation coefficient of 0.9 suggests a strong positive relationship between two variables.

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Probability Distribution

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A function that describes the likelihood of obtaining the possible values that a random variable can assume. Example: The probability distribution of a fair six-sided die roll is each number 1-6 with a probability of 1/6.

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ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)

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A statistical method for making simultaneous comparisons between two or more means; a generalization of the t-test. Example: Testing whether three different diets have different effects on weight loss.

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