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Behavioral Finance Biases
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Familiarity Bias
The preference for familiar or well-known investments rather than diversification, possibly increasing the risk of an investment portfolio. This can occur with a preference for domestic over international investments, or favoring an industry that the investor works in or knows well.
Gambler's Fallacy
The mistaken belief that if an event occurred more frequently than expected in the past, it is less likely to happen in the future, when actually it is just as likely to occur. Investors may believe that a string of losses or gains signals an imminent change in luck, contrary to true probabilistic outcomes.
Recency Bias
The tendency to weigh recent events more heavily than earlier events. This can cause investors to make decisions based on short-term trends rather than long-term fundamentals, potentially leading to reactive, rather than strategic, investment behavior.
Anchoring Bias
The common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the 'anchor') when making decisions. Investors might be influenced by purchase price or historic highs and lows which can result in underreaction to new information and adjustment to a fair market price.
Endowment Effect
The tendency for people to ascribe more value to things merely because they own them. This can lead investors to demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it, and may result in holding onto assets longer than is rational.
Home Bias
The tendency for investors to favor domestic equities over international ones. This can limit portfolio diversification and potentially decrease the portfolio's performance due to overconcentration in a single market or region.
Representativeness Bias
The tendency to judge the probability of an event by finding a 'comparable known' event and assuming that the probabilities will be similar. As a result, investors might overreact to a series of good or bad news without regard to the long-term prospects of the investment.
Overconfidence Bias
The tendency to overestimate one's ability to perform, leading investors to underestimate risks and overestimate their ability to predict outcomes. Overconfident investors may trade too aggressively, which can lead to suboptimal returns due to excessive trading costs and poor timing.
Illusion of Control
The tendency to overestimate one's ability to control events, leading an investor to believe they can control or influence outcomes when, in fact, they cannot. This may cause them to take on more risk believing they can affect the outcome.
Disposition Effect
The tendency for investors to sell assets that have increased in value, while keeping assets that have dropped in value. This can lead to realizing gains prematurely and to holding on to losing stocks in the hope that they will rebound ('breaking even' fallacy).
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on, and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading investors to give more weight to information that confirms their existing beliefs and ignore dissenting information.
Loss Aversion
The tendency for investors to prefer avoiding losses rather than acquiring equivalent gains: it's better to not lose 5. This can lead investors to hold losing investments too long and sell winning investments too quickly.
Hindsight Bias
The inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it. This can cause investors to believe market trends are more predictable than they really are.
Regret Aversion
The fear that any choice made could turn out to be wrong, leading investors to tend to do nothing rather than make a decision that could potentially lead to a loss or to regret. This can result in an excessively conservative investment approach or missed opportunities.
Status Quo Bias
A preference for the current state of affairs; the current baseline (or status quo) is taken as a reference point, and any change from that baseline is perceived as a loss. This can lead investors to do nothing instead of making a change that could improve their financial outcome.
Mental Accounting
The tendency to categorize funds differently and to treat each category in isolation, affecting investment decisions and consumption patterns. Investors might have different rules for money in different 'accounts', which may prevent them from optimizing their financial portfolio.
Availability Bias
The tendency to estimate the probability of an event based on how easily an example can be brought to mind. This can lead investors to make decisions based on vivid or recent information rather than on all the relevant data.
Herd Behavior
The phenomenon where investors follow what they perceive other investors are doing rather than their own analysis. This can lead to investment bubbles or avoidable selloffs, as individuals succumb to peer pressure and collective rationalization.
Optimism Bias
The belief that one is less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. This can lead investors to underestimate risks in their investment portfolio and not sufficiently diversify or hedge against potential market downturns.
Self-Attribution Bias
The common tendency to attribute successful outcomes to one's own actions and bad outcomes to external factors. Investors with this bias might become overconfident after a string of successes, believing it is due to skill rather than luck or market conditions.
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