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Decision Analysis Techniques

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Decision Tree

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A graphical representation of possible solutions to a decision and their possible consequences or outcomes, used for complex decision making.

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Cost-Benefit Analysis

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A process by which business decisions are analyzed. The benefits of a given situation or business-related action are summed and then the costs associated with taking that action are subtracted.

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SWOT Analysis

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SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. It's used to evaluate these four aspects of a business or project to facilitate strategic planning.

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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A computational algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results, typically used to assess the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models.

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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

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A structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and psychology, that involves decomposing a decision into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems.

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Conjoint Analysis

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A statistical technique used in market research to determine how people value different attributes that make up an individual product or service.

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Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

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A decision-making process that involves evaluating and integrating multiple conflicting criteria, often to prioritize projects or choose among alternatives.

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Real Options Analysis

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A financial analysis technique for valuing strategic options in investment decisions, which recognizes the value of flexibility to adapt or revise decisions in response to unexpected market conditions.

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Decision Matrix

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Also known as a grid analysis, Pugh matrix analysis, or MAUT, this tool is used to evaluate multiple alternatives relative to certain criteria, often with weighted scoring.

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Sensitivity Analysis

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A technique used to determine how different values of an independent variable affect a particular dependent variable under a given set of assumptions, often used in conjunction with other decision making tools.

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Expected Value

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A calculation in probability theory that summarizes the expected payoff of a decision with uncertainty, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of occurrence (EV=Σ(pivi)EV = \Sigma (p_i \cdot v_i)).

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The Delphi Method

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A forecasting process framework based on the results of multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts, used typically to make consensus-based forecasts.

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