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Forecasting Models

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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A computational algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. It's often used to assess the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models.

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Moving Averages

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A technique used to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles by averaging data points from a subset of the total data.

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Holt-Winters Method

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This method extends exponential smoothing to capture seasonality by including a seasonal smoothing factor in addition to the level and trend components of the model.

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Decision Trees

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A model that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences. It’s used to create a plan to reach a goal or make predictions by learning decision rules inferred from prior data.

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Exponential Smoothing

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A rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponentially decreasing weights over time. Useful when reasonable trend or seasonal patterns are absent.

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Linear Regression

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A statistical method that models the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables using a linear equation. Commonly used for predicting future values and trends.

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Time Series Analysis

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A methodology for analyzing sequences of data points collected over time intervals to forecast future values based on historical patterns.

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Neural Networks

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A set of algorithms modeled on the human brain that are designed to recognize patterns and perform forecasting by learning from historical data.

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ARIMA

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An acronym for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average, it combines autoregression, differencing for stationarity, and moving average to predict future points in the time series.

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Qualitative Forecasting

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Relies on expert opinions and other non-quantifiable data. It is useful when historical data is unavailable, or when forecasting new products or technology.

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