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Risk Assessment and Scoring Methods

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Qualitative Risk Analysis

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Methodology: Subjective assessment of risks using expert judgement. Measurement scale: Descriptive categories such as low, medium, and high.

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Quantitative Risk Analysis

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Methodology: Evaluates risks using mathematical models. Measurement scale: Numerical probability distributions and financial impact.

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

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Methodology: Systematically analyzing potential failure modes within a system. Measurement scale: Risk Priority Number (RPN), calculated as Severity×Occurrence×Detection\text{Severity} \times \text{Occurrence} \times \text{Detection}.

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Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA)

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Methodology: A semi-quantitative risk assessment tool focusing on scenario-based risks. Measurement scale: Ranges from tolerable to intolerable risk based on frequency and consequence.

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Risk Heat Map

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Methodology: Visual tool that plots risks on a matrix based on severity and likelihood. Measurement scale: Colors indicate different levels of risk (e.g., green, yellow, red).

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CARVER + Shock

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Methodology: A prioritization tool for identifying vulnerabilities and protecting critical infrastructure. Measurement scale: Scoring system from 1 to 10 in six categories, plus 'Shock' value.

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Decision Tree Analysis

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Methodology: Graphical representation of potential outcomes from a series of related choices. Measurement scale: Expected monetary value of each decision path.

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BowTie Method

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Methodology: Visual tool that maps out risk scenarios from cause to effect. Measurement scale: Qualitative measure, identifying preventive and mitigative controls.

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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Methodology: Uses random sampling and statistical modelling to estimate possible outcomes. Measurement scale: A probability distribution of all possible risk outcomes.

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Root Cause Analysis (RCA)

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Methodology: Identifying the primary cause of a problem or risk. Measurement scale: Qualitative, aimed at the most fundamental level.

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Value at Risk (VAR)

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Methodology: Estimates the maximum potential loss over a specific time period at a certain confidence level. Measurement scale: Monetary value representing losses not exceeded X% of the time.

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Risk Scoring Matrix

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Methodology: Combines the probability of a risk event occurring with its impact. Measurement scale: Numerical scores assigned to reflect the combination of likelihood and impact.

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