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Demand Forecasting Techniques

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Time Series Analysis

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Technique Description: Utilizes historical data to predict future demand by identifying patterns. When to Use: Stable environments with abundant historical data.

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Regression Analysis

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Technique Description: Establishes relationships between dependent and independent variables to predict demand. When to Use: When data relationships and trends need to be quantified.

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Delphi Technique

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Technique Description: A structured communication technique that relies on a panel of experts. When to Use: Scenarios where expert qualitative judgments are needed, especially for long-term forecasting.

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Exponential Smoothing

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Technique Description: A weighted moving average method that reduces the weight for older data points. When to Use: When smoother, less erratic forecasts are needed and quick adaptations to recent changes.

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Moving Average

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Technique Description: Forecasts demand based on the average of a specific number of the most recent observations. When to Use: Simple scenarios when trends and seasonal patterns are not present.

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Decomposition

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Technique Description: Breaks down historical data into trend, seasonal, and cyclical components. When to Use: When data exhibits strong seasonal or cyclical patterns over time.

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Box-Jenkins (ARIMA)

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Technique Description: A sophisticated statistical approach using autoregression and moving averages. When to Use: When handling complex time series that incorporate both auto-correlation and non-stationarity.

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Judgmental Forecasting

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Technique Description: Uses subjective opinions rather than just hard data. When to Use: When insufficient historical data is available or rapid changes occur in the market.

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Artificial Neural Networks

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Technique Description: Machine learning algorithms modeled after the human brain that can learn from data. When to Use: Highly complex, nonlinear and dynamic environments where relationships between data points are not clearly understood.

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Croston's Method

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Technique Description: A statistical technique for intermittent demand forecasting. When to Use: Specially useful for spare parts demand prediction or any scenario with irregular demand.

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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Technique Description: Uses randomness to solve problems that might be deterministic in principle. When to Use: When you need to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models.

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Qualitative Forecasting

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Technique Description: Forecasting that relies on expert opinions and market research rather than numerical data. When to Use: When numerical data is scarce or the focus is on new products and innovations.

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Econometric Modeling

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Technique Description: Uses economic theories to model and predict future behaviors. When to Use: When you need to predict long-term demand based on economic indicators and relationships.

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Causal Modeling

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Technique Description: Looks at cause-and-effect relationships to predict demand, such as the effect of marketing campaigns or price changes. When to Use: When specific factors known to influence demand can be quantified.

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Multiple Regression

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Technique Description: An extension of linear regression that uses multiple independent variables to predict demand. When to Use: When forecasting demand based on several predictors and their relationship to the sales variable.

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